• 

  42%

  +0.2%

  Narrative Stabilizes

  French authorities, EU officials, and major platforms succeed in reducing the visibility of viral AI-generated riot imagery. Protests continue but lose momentum as verified reporting and arrests reduce the perception of nationwide breakdown.

  Consumer Services +0.4% · Technology +0.3% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%

• 

  28%

  −0.6%

  Protests Persist

  Budget protests remain active even as the AI-fake controversy becomes a secondary issue. The government avoids collapse, but arrests and city-level security measures keep investor attention on France’s political risk.

  Consumer Services −0.8% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.7% · Finance −0.6%

• 

  20%

  −0.3%

  Influence Probe Escalates

  The EU investigation finds evidence of a coordinated foreign information operation, intensifying the dispute over AI-generated riot images. Brussels and Paris shift from rebuttals to enforcement, sanctions, and platform compliance demands.

  Technology −0.2% · Telecommunications −0.2% · Consumer Services −0.1%

• 

  10%

  −0.9%

  Political Crisis Deepens

  The unrest and the AI-fake dispute feed a broader challenge to Macron’s authority. This is less likely than containment, but a parliamentary confrontation or emergency security package would create a more material short-term risk-off reaction.

  Consumer Services −1.3% · Consumer Cyclicals −1.1% · Finance −1.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.