Possible scenario
Serious Hybrid Escalation
20% Chance
A more severe Russian-linked hybrid incident hits European infrastructure or election systems, forcing a sharper NATO and EU response. This is less likely than containment but plausible given the recent warnings from Germany and the EU about planned sabotage.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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