Megacap Divergence

18%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The market distinguishes between Apple’s cash-flow durability and Nvidia’s AI-cycle sensitivity instead of treating megacap tech as one trade. This produces relative performance shifts but only limited broad-market spillover.

What it moves

Technology+0.2%

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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