Possible scenario
Stalemate Hardens
30% Chance
Talks do not collapse, but they stall into another diplomatic freeze. Zelensky maintains his rejection of territorial concessions, while Putin waits for Trump to offer pressure on Kyiv or sanctions relief.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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