Possible scenario
Pressure Campaign Escalates
20% Chance
The missed call becomes a political trigger for a tougher U.S. posture. Trump could threaten or impose new sanctions on Russian energy, shipping, banks, or intermediaries while Moscow responds with military or diplomatic pressure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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