Possible scenario
Supreme Court Review
38% Chance
The circuit split makes Supreme Court review the most likely path because federal preemption, CFTC authority, and state gambling laws now conflict across jurisdictions. The Court may decide whether CFTC-regulated event contracts can override state sports-betting restrictions.
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Tickers
- HOOD+0.3%
- DKNG+0.1%
- FLUT+0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.