Possible scenario
Iran-Houthi Link Alleged
30% Chance
Saudi investigators publicly tie the plot to Houthi or Iranian-linked logistics, building on the recent missile interceptions and the breakdown in Saudi-Iranian coexistence. This would turn the story from a domestic counterterrorism case into a regional escalation risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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