Possible scenario
Contained Saudi Case
40% Chance
Saudi authorities use the new video evidence to reinforce the claim that the Mecca plot was real but operationally contained. The investigation remains focused on Mohammed Naim, local facilitators, and failures in checkpoint screening rather than a direct state-sponsored attack.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Industrials +0.3%
Tickers
- -1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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