Possible scenario
Energy Sites Hit
25% Chance
Ukraine expands the campaign from military logistics into fuel depots, refineries, and pipeline support infrastructure in western Russia. Because prior Ukrainian strikes have already targeted Russian oil facilities, markets price a limited but visible energy-risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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