Possible scenario
Contained Drone Campaign
45% Chance
Ukraine continues using large drone salvos against Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod, and nearby logistics nodes, but the strikes remain within the pattern of the ongoing war. Russia reports high interception rates while acknowledging localized fires and temporary disruptions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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