Possible scenario
Nationwide Crackdown Escalates
18% Chance
The burial controversy fuses with anger over recent executions and triggers coordinated protests in several provinces. The government responds with larger arrests, internet restrictions, and more aggressive Revolutionary Guard and Basij deployments.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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