From todayUS Ambassador Denies Blocking Cuba’s Fuel Supply Despite Severe Power Shortages

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  45%

  0.0%

  Denial Preserves Standoff

  Washington maintains that it is enforcing sanctions rather than blocking humanitarian fuel, while Havana continues to blame the U.S. for the grid crisis. This is the most likely near-term path because neither side has an immediate incentive to concede after repeated ship seizures and public accusations.

  Energy +0.1%

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  25%

  0.0%

  Limited Fuel Relief

  The Biden or successor administration quietly allows a narrow humanitarian carveout for fuel used by hospitals, water systems, and grid stabilization. This would let Washington deny a blockade while reducing the political cost of images of nationwide Cuban blackouts.

  Consumer Services +0.1%

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  20%

  −0.2%

  Sanctions Enforcement Escalates

  Washington doubles down by widening maritime and financial enforcement against entities moving fuel to Cuba, possibly including ship managers, brokers, and insurers. The move would reinforce U.S. credibility on sanctions but increase regional diplomatic friction and Cuba’s domestic stress.

  Energy +0.2% · Consumer Services −0.1%

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  10%

  0.0%

  Regional Mediation Advances

  CARICOM, Mexico, Colombia, or the UN attempts to broker a monitored fuel corridor that lets both Washington and Havana avoid a public climbdown. This is less likely than continued confrontation, but regional governments have incentives to prevent a migration or humanitarian crisis.

  Consumer Services +0.1%