Possible scenario
Reform Squeezes Labour
20% Chance
The earlier local-election jolt from the anti-immigration right remains a strategic threat even though the latest by-election was defined by the Greens. Reform UK uses Labour's narrow urban hold to argue that Burnham is losing both working-class and metropolitan voters.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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