Ambiguity Persists
0.0%
The most likely path is that independent researchers do not find a reproducible Blackwell signature in DeepSeek V4.1, while also failing to identify the actual training hardware. This keeps the controversy alive but avoids an immediate enforcement or market-moving conclusion.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.