Possible scenario
Limited Strike Proceeds
35% Chance
The United States concludes that diplomacy has failed and carries out a narrow strike on Iranian nuclear, missile, or air-defense infrastructure. Washington tries to contain the operation below the threshold of a full regional war, while Iran signals retaliation but avoids immediate Hormuz closure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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