Possible scenario
Diplomacy Delays Attack
30% Chance
Iran's warning functions partly as deterrent signaling, while Gulf intermediaries try to revive sequencing talks over enrichment, sanctions, and shipping guarantees. The United States keeps forces on alert but pauses an immediate attack to test a narrow diplomatic off-ramp.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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