Possible scenario
Refinery Bottleneck Persists
40% Chance
The most likely path is that the gasoline spike remains driven less by crude scarcity than by constrained refining capacity and unplanned outages. Crack spreads stay wide, refiners retain pricing power, and consumers face another stretch of elevated pump prices.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
- Consumer Services -0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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