Possible scenario
Crude Supply Tightens
20% Chance
A new crude-supply catalyst could compound the refinery bottleneck. OPEC+ discipline or geopolitical disruptions would raise crude benchmarks and reinforce inflation concerns, lifting energy shares but hurting consumer and transport names.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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