Possible scenario
Iran Attribution Escalates
20% Chance
US and UK officials move from police statements to formal attribution against Iran-linked networks. The most likely response is sanctions and intelligence disclosures, though a smaller tail risk includes proxy harassment of US positions in the Middle East.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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