Possible scenario
Security Lockdown Persists
25% Chance
The threat picture remains active enough for US and UK authorities to keep enhanced security at RAF Fairford, RAF Lakenheath and RAF Mildenhall. The base-security issue disrupts exercises but stops short of a direct military clash.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
Tickers
- +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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