Possible scenario
Coalition Gains Traction
35% Chance
The 22-leader call becomes a credible middle-power and EU-backed effort to shape AI safety rules despite the absence of the US, China and UK. It does not immediately bind major AI firms, but it increases expectations for audits, model-control disclosures and public-sector procurement rules.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.8%
- Business Services +0.3%
Tickers
- MSFT-1.1%
- NVDA-0.7%
- ACN+0.6%
- META-0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.