Possible scenario
US UK Compromise
30% Chance
The exclusion of the US and UK prompts a diplomatic response rather than a lasting rupture. Washington and London try to fold the control call into a broader standards process that protects their domestic AI industries while offering limited concessions on safety testing.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.4%
- Technology +0.2%
Tickers
- NVDA+0.6%
- AMZN+0.3%
- MSFT+0.3%
- META-0.3%
- +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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