Possible scenario
Right Bloc Prevails
38% Chance
The Supreme Court ruling stands and Arab parties contest the Oct. 27 election, but Netanyahu’s Likud-led camp remains the best organized bloc. The reversal reduces immediate legitimacy risk, yet the next government’s composition still depends on turnout and whether small parties cross the threshold.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
Tickers
- ESLT+0.3%
- +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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