Possible scenario
Surplus Path Holds
45% Chance
New Zealand’s Treasury and Finance Minister Nicola Willis broadly deliver on the projected return to surplus by 2029, helped by restrained spending growth and a gradual recovery in tax receipts. The National-led government avoids major tax or welfare reversals while using operating allowances to keep the fiscal track credible.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
- Industrials +0.1%
- Utilities +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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