Possible scenario
Surplus Delayed Mildly
30% Chance
The most likely downside is a one-year slippage rather than a fiscal crisis. Weak retail activity, slower nominal wage growth, and softer company profits reduce tax receipts, forcing the government to revise the surplus date to 2030 while keeping debt broadly contained.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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