Possible scenario
Managed Currency Adjustment
40% Chance
Iraq treats the move to 1,520 dinars per dollar as a defensive adjustment rather than the start of a currency crisis. The Central Bank of Iraq uses dollar auctions, spending controls, and short-term fiscal rationing to slow reserve losses while oil exports remain impaired.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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