Possible scenario
Hormuz Disruption Persists
32% Chance
Iranian pressure in and around the Strait of Hormuz continues to interrupt tanker movements, leaving Iraq unable to normalize crude exports quickly. The most likely path is a grinding disruption rather than an immediate regional war, keeping oil-risk premia elevated.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Consumer Services -0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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