Possible scenario
G7 Adds Sanctions
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is a coordinated but incremental G7 response, as members have repeatedly used Russian attacks on civilians to justify tighter sanctions and export controls. Measures would focus on enforcement gaps rather than a sweeping new embargo.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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