Possible scenario
Aid Package Accelerates
20% Chance
Instead of relying mainly on sanctions, Ukraine's partners may respond by accelerating air-defense deliveries and ammunition funding. This is plausible because recent Russian strikes on Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Lutsk strengthen the case for defensive aid.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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