Possible scenario
Democratic Wave Builds
25% Chance
The fundraising quarter proves to be an early sign of a larger Democratic wave rather than just a tactical advantage. Republican outside groups struggle to match the late spending, and the battlefield expands into districts previously rated Likely Republican.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
- Finance -0.7%
- Healthcare +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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