Possible scenario
Democrats Retake House
45% Chance
The fundraising haul reinforces the existing Cook Political Report shift away from Republicans and gives Democratic outside groups enough money to contest marginal districts. A narrow Democratic majority becomes the base case, driven by midterm backlash against President Trump and strong spending from House Majority PAC, the DCCC and allied groups.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Finance -0.4%
- Business Services +0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
- Consumer Services
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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