Possible scenario
Persistent Grey-Zone Pressure
30% Chance
Russia continues probing NATO states below the threshold of open military conflict, using cyberattacks, sabotage, disinformation, GPS jamming, and intimidation of critical infrastructure operators. This path is consistent with the timeline of cable sabotage, cyber attribution, and France's covert retaliation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications -0.7%
- Utilities -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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