Possible scenario
Major Hybrid Attack
15% Chance
A larger hybrid operation occurs before autumn 2027, validating France's accelerated warning and forcing a sharper NATO response. The incident remains below conventional war, but the market reaction is meaningfully risk-off because critical infrastructure resilience is questioned.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -2.1%
- Industrials +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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