Scenario description
Assume that by 2026-11-15 Iran and relevant foreign counterparties implement an arrangement under which international nuclear monitors regain access to at least some Iranian nuclear facilities damaged in the war, and some form of sanctions relief or waiver for Iran also takes effect. The exact sanctions measures, facility list, inspection timetable, and volumes of any affected trade are not yet specified in the available reporting; the initiating change is that both monitoring access and relief become operational rather than merely discussed.