Scenario description
Assume that by 2026-11-15 Iran formally withdraws from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty or begins enforcing a binding official measure that materially suspends NPT/IAEA cooperation, such as legally barring inspectors, terminating agreed monitoring access, or otherwise preventing international verification work at covered nuclear sites. The exact duration, scope across facilities, and any exemptions are not specified in the available reporting; the initiating change is a binding and operational restriction rather than rhetoric, legislative review, or a diplomatic denial.