Possible scenario
Geopolitical Risk Returns
15% Chance
The June Middle East-related selloff remains relevant, and a renewed oil or shipping shock could add to inflation and risk-aversion concerns. Such a move would support energy shares but hurt travel, transport-exposed industrials, and broader risk assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Industrials -0.6%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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