Possible scenario
Volatility Stays Contained
45% Chance
The most likely path is that volatility remains elevated but does not turn into a disorderly selloff. Investors digest the inflation shock, higher Treasury yields, and recent technology weakness while waiting for new Fed guidance and earnings updates.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Bitcoin Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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