Possible scenario
Freeze Holds
40% Chance
The administration maintains the block despite the January congressional approval, framing the decision as a review of escalation risk and U.S.-China stability. This is the most likely path given the prior stall in February and Trump’s May comments questioning Taiwan arms sales.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.5%
- Technology +0.3%
Tickers
- LMT-1.0%
- RTX-0.8%
- NOC-0.7%
- BA-0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.