Possible scenario
Congress Forces Reversal
30% Chance
Congress pushes back against the administration by using appropriations, the NDAA, or direct reporting requirements to force the sale forward. Bipartisan Taiwan support remains strong enough that lawmakers may view the block as executive overreach.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.5%
- Technology -0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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