Possible scenario
Marshall GOP Recovery
30% Chance
Roger Marshall survives by turning the race back into a partisan federal contest rather than a referendum on Kansas moderation. The GOP super PAC investment, national Republican visits, and conservative media messaging bring enough Republican voters home despite the visible Hamilton coalition.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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