Possible scenario
Hamilton Crossover Win
40% Chance
Adam Hamilton converts the Republican coalition, former GOP governor endorsements, and abortion-rights backlash into a durable permission structure for moderate Republicans and independents. Roger Marshall remains competitive, but the $14 million GOP super PAC investment is not enough to reverse Hamilton's lead.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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