Possible scenario
Repression Intensifies
25% Chance
Iran's security apparatus treats the U.S. accusation as foreign interference and accelerates arrests, prosecutions and information controls. This path is consistent with the January crackdown, the executions in Isfahan and Tehran's pattern of using rapid trials to deter renewed demonstrations.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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