Possible scenario
Coordinated Sanctions Push
40% Chance
Washington uses Rubio's accusation to build a coordinated human-rights response with Brussels, London and Ottawa. The most likely policy path is targeted sanctions on IRGC, judiciary and prison officials rather than measures that directly hit Iranian oil exports.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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