Possible scenario
Kansas Remains Tossup
30% Chance
Trump's tour boosts Republican enthusiasm but also reinforces the Democratic argument that Marshall is too tied to national party politics. Kansas stays a tossup, forcing the GOP to spend time and money in a state it expected to hold comfortably.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Healthcare +0.3%
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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