Possible scenario
Selective Court Successes
40% Chance
More Russian tycoons use the Usmanov and Fridman delistings as a litigation template, arguing the EU Council relied on stale or insufficient evidence. The most likely path is selective rather than wholesale relief, with courts distinguishing between oligarchs who can show weakened Kremlin links and those still tied to strategic Russian assets.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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