Possible scenario
Negotiated Compliance Exits
20% Chance
Some wealthy Russians pursue negotiated exits rather than pure litigation, emphasizing divestments, governance changes, and public distancing from Moscow. EU authorities may allow narrow exemptions where funds are ring-fenced and no benefit flows to sanctioned Russian entities.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.2%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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