Possible scenario
Waters Recede Quickly
45% Chance
Dujuan weakens and the worst flooding remains localized, allowing emergency crews to reopen major transport corridors around Tokyo and affected prefectures. The death toll holds near current levels, and market effects stay limited to travel, rail, and local utilities.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Industrials -0.1%
- Utilities -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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