From todaySpaceX Conducts 6-Engine Static Fire of Ship 42 for Starship Flight 15

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  46%

  0.0%

  On-Time Flight Attempt

  The six-engine static fire is accepted as clean enough to proceed with final inspections, propellant loading rehearsals, and range coordination. Given the booster static fire was already completed on October 25, the most likely path is a near-term Flight 15 attempt with the dual-catch plan still in scope.

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  26%

  0.0%

  Routine Schedule Slip

  Static-fire data, weather, marine notices, or range availability push Flight 15 back without indicating a fundamental vehicle problem. This is common for Starship campaigns and would be interpreted as normal test discipline rather than a program setback.

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  18%

  0.0%

  Partial Flight Success

  Flight 15 proceeds, but SpaceX either omits one catch attempt or encounters a manageable in-flight issue. The mission still produces useful data, but it falls short of the highly visible dual-catch objective Musk highlighted before the static-fire campaign.

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  10%

  0.0%

  Extended Repair Delay

  Post-static-fire inspections or later wet-dress testing uncover an issue that requires more than routine pad turnaround. The flight remains likely to occur, but the schedule for demonstrating dual catch slips materially.