Possible scenario
Italy Cooperates
45% Chance
Italian authorities treat Brazil's arrest order as a standard judicial cooperation matter rather than a political dispute. Because Eduardo Bolsonaro used an Italian passport, Rome is likely to require formal extradition or mutual legal assistance procedures before any handover.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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