Possible scenario
Diplomatic Standoff
25% Chance
The case becomes a bilateral dispute over citizenship, extradition rules, and whether Brazil's charges are criminal or political. Giorgia Meloni's government faces competing pressure from Brazilian authorities, Italian legal norms, and right-wing allies sympathetic to the Bolsonaro family.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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